The Best and Worst Months for the Stock Market, Based on 95 Years of History
- Silivere Bakomeza
- Jun 3
- 4 min read
Updated: Jul 31
Published on BakoInvest.com
What If You Knew the Market’s Seasonal Rhythm?
Some months are built for gains.
Others are designed to shake weak hands.
After analyzing 95 years of S&P 500 returns (1928-2023), clear patterns emerge:
Certain months deliver outsized returns. Others? Volatility, corrections, or outright chaos.
And no, this isn’t about market timing. It’s about investor intelligence, knowing the weather before stepping into the financial battlefield.
Let’s break it all down. Then I’ll show you how I use this knowledge while building my own 20-year portfolio, one share at a time.
Best & Worst Months at a Glance
Here’s the full breakdown of monthly returns, based on nearly a century of data:
✅ The 5 Best Months for the Market (1928–2023)
🔹 1. April
Avg Return: +1.5%
Why: New Q2 earnings, post-tax season optimism, institutional rotation
Notable Years: 2020 (+12.7%), 2003 (+8.2%)
Investor Tip: Often starts quietly, finishes strong
April is the most consistent “green” month in S&P 500 history, with a win rate over 74%. Whether it’s fresh capital flows or bullish earnings expectations, this month is the market’s springboard.
🔹 2. November
Avg Return: +1.5%
Why: Start of the “holiday rally,” elections, portfolio rebalancing
Notable Years: 2020 (+10.8%), 1998 (+5.9%)
November kicks off Q4’s run. Institutions position for year-end performance, and retail sentiment usually turns positive. It’s also post-election relief territory in U.S. midterm and general election years.
🔹 3. December
Avg Return: +1.4%
Why: “Santa Claus Rally,” tax-loss harvesting ends, optimism spikes
Notable Years: 1991 (+11.4%), 2010 (+6.5%)
Despite occasional dips (like 2018), December is historically bullish. Investors start looking toward the next year, and fund managers push for performance bonuses.
🔹 4. July
Avg Return: +1.1%
Why: Q2 earnings season, mid-year clarity, low summer volume
Notable Years: 2009 (+7.4%), 2013 (+5.0%)
July quietly delivers. It’s a month that gets overlooked but consistently outpaces August and June in both frequency and size of gains.
🔹 5. October
Avg Return: +0.9%
Why: Reversal zone, fear climax, and historical “bottom builder”
Notable Years: 2002 (+8.6%), 2011 (+10.8%)
October has a reputation for crashes (1929, 1987, 2008)… but it’s also the birthplace of some of the biggest bull runs. Smart money often steps back in here.
❌ The 3 Worst Months for the Market
🔻 1. September
Avg Return: -0.7%
Why: Fund outflows, institutional rebalancing, macro pessimism
Notable Crashes: 2008, 2001, 2022
September is the most dangerous month historically, with the highest frequency of negative returns. It’s not a time to panic, but it is a time to stay grounded and disciplined.
🔻 2. February
Avg Return: -0.1%
Why: Post-January cool-down, lackluster earnings continuation
Volatile Examples: 2009 (-11.0%), 2018 (-3.9%)
February often feels like a hangover from January’s momentum. Market enthusiasm fades, and volatility increases without clear direction.
🔻 3. June
Avg Return: ~0%
Why: Mid-year indecision, early summer slowness
Notable Drops: 2008, 2011, 2022
June rarely crashes hard, but it also rarely rallies. It’s a sideways month more than a red one. Tread with patience.
What This Means for Long-Term Investors
Let’s be clear:
This isn’t about timing your entire portfolio around monthly returns.
It’s about knowing the terrain. That way, you’re not surprised when the storm hits.
The Monthly Map for Long-Term Investors or Swing Traders
Grow Months: January, March, April, May, July, November, December
Let the compounding do its work. Trust the quiet gains.
Grip Months: February, June, August, September
Stay the course. These are the red months that shake beginners.
Gear Month: October
Get ready. The market moves fast. Either add or hold but never flinch.
Knowledge creates stability. And stability builds wealth quietly, but permanently.
📌 My Personal Strategy (DCA + Seasonal Awareness)
I’m investing $50/day into Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, $MSTR) for 20 years, documenting the entire journey publicly. You can read my latest update here:
Even though I don’t time the market, I use seasonal awareness to:
Mentally prepare for red months
Avoid panic selling in September
Keep confidence high in April and December
This isn’t trading. It’s emotional conditioning.
💬 Final Thought
You don’t have to be perfect. You don’t have to predict every rally or crash.
But if you understand the rhythm of the market, you stop reacting like everyone else.
You become the one who stays in the game long enough to win.
“Some months crush. Some crash. But I show up through them all.” — Bako
🛠 Want to Start Your Journey?
Don’t wait for the perfect month.
The worst thing you can say if you want to build wealth is,
“I don’t have enough money to start.”
That mindset will keep you broke.
Start with $1. Stay consistent. Let time work.
👉 Start with Robinhood today and begin your own journey. one day at a time.
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